A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
