Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
